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Ann Thorac Surg 2004;77:745-753
© 2004 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
a Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, The National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St. Mary's Hospital, London, United Kingdom
* Address reprint requests to Dr Athanasiou, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, 70 St. Olaf's Rd, Fulham, London, SW6 7DN UK
e-mail: tathan5253{at}aol.com
| Abstract |
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| Introduction |
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It was previously demonstrated that advanced age is an independent predictor of increased incidence stroke and mortality, with this risk-effect having a linear relation to the increase in age [1013].
The OPCAB technique was shown by us and others to improve the outcome in high-risk patients [1421], whereas the use of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) was shown to be associated with some degree of neurocognitive and neurologic dysfunction [2224]. In contrast to a previous study [25], a recent large multivariate study in a general CABG population including 16,184 patients showed the OPCAB approach to be protective in terms of reducing the incidence of neurologic injury [26]. However, other clinical multivariate studies focusing on elderly patients undergoing CABG failed to identify the use of CPB as an independent predictor of stroke or mortality [27, 28].
The aim of this meta-analysis is to assess whether OPCAB reduces the incidence of stroke compared with CABG using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in elderly patients.
| Patients and methods |
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Data extraction
Data extraction was conducted independently by two reviewers (A.T and C-MC) and in the case of discrepancy, the decision was taken by consensus. The following information was extracted from each study: first author, year of publication, study population characteristics, study design (prospective, retrospective, or other), inclusion and exclusion criteria, number of subjects operated on with each technique, quality of study, and conversion rate from OPCAB to CPB.
The study was performed in line with the recommendations of the proposal for reporting meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology (MOOSE), which was produced in Atlanta [29]. The quality of the nonrandomized studies was assessed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) with some modifications to match the needs of this study [30]. The quality of the studies was evaluated by examining three items: patient selection, comparability of OPCAB and CPB groups, and assessment of outcome (Table 1). For the comparability between the two groups, we focused on the following variables that have been identified as independent predictors of stroke by previous multivariate studies: age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, ejection fraction, reoperation, nonelective priority, and history of cerebro-vascular disease [31, 32]. The distribution of these variables between OPCAB and CPB groups is presented in Table 2.
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Inclusion criteria
The following criteria were used in order to include studies into our analysis. (1) Only studies comparing OPCAB with CPB in elderly patients were included. Elderly patients were defined as those aged 70 years or older. (2) Where several articles reported on the same patient material, we selected the most recent article.
Exclusion criteria
The following criteria were used in order to exclude studies from our analysis. (1) Studies in which the surgical technique (whether OPCAB or CPB) could not be defined. (2) Studies in which the outcome of comparison of both techniques was not reported or it was not possible to calculate this from the published results. (3) Studies that contained a zero for the outcome of interest in two cells of the cross-tabulation tables for OPCAB and CPB groups.
Outcome of interest and definitions
OPCAB and CPB were compared, with permanent stroke being the outcome of interest. We did not focus on other adverse neurologic outcomes than permanent stroke such as: transient ischemic attacks, stupor, seizures, or deterioration of intellectual function. The outcome of interest was exctracted from the studies as it was recorded by the words: "stroke" or "permanent stroke," with particular attention to be distinguished from "transient ischemic attacks." Also, we did not consider the different modifications in the operative techniques used by different surgeons.
Statistical analysis
Statistical analysis was carried out by using the odds ratio as the summary statistic. This represents the odds of an adverse event occurring in the treatment group compared with the reference group. The group where CPB was used was considered as the reference group, and that in which OPCAB was used, the treatment group. An odds ratio of less than one favors the treatment group, and the point estimate of the odds ratio is considered statistically significant at the p less than 0.05 level if the 95% confidence interval does not include the value 1. Aggregation of the overall rates of the outcomes of interest was performed with the Mantel-Haenszel
2 test. Yate's correction was used for those studies that contained a zero in one cell for the number of events of interest in one of the two groups. The fixed effects approach was used as has been described by Yusuf and associates and Mantel and associates [3334]. In our study, we used both fixed and random effects models [35].
In our tabulations (Fig 1), squares indicate point estimates of treatment effect (odds ratio), with the size of the square representing the weight attributed to each study and 95% confidence intervals indicated by horizontal bars. The diamond represents the summary odds ratio from the pooled studies with 95% confidence intervals.
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Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis was performed by reanalyzing the data using different statistical approaches (eg, using a random effects model instead of a fixed effect model) and by funnel plots to evaluate publication bias [36]. Subgroup analysis taking in consideration the quality of the study was performed.
We also used meta-regression analysis to evaluate any associations between treatment effect (odds ratio of stroke) and variables predicting stroke (age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, ejection fraction, reoperation, nonelective priority, history of cerebro-vascular disease, unstable angina), mortality, and study characteristics (study size, year of publication). The method used to estimate the between study variance was the restricted maximum-likelihood (REML).
Sample size considerations
Because stroke is not a frequent categorical outcome, a large sample of patients would be required to have sufficient power to exclude difference between the two groups. The incidence of stroke in CPB patients was 3%. To rule out a 33% relative risk reduction (from 3% to 2%) with a 5% significance level and 80% power, a traditional randomized controlled trial would require 4,023 patients in each arm.
| Results |
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Definition of age of the elderly patients was different between studies. In two out of the 10, the age definition (> 80 years) was used to define the elderly patients [41, 42]. In three out of the 10 studies [12, 38, 39], the OPCAB group had higher mean age in comparison with the CPB.
In one study [40], more nonelective operations were performed in the OPCAB group. In the rest of the studies, the two groups were comparable for operative priority.
We also identified the following differences in the clinical characteristics of the patients in the two groups among the studies evaluated: first, only in one study [44], the OPCAB group included patients with better left ventricular function. Second, in two studies [44, 45], the OPCAB included more patients with unstable angina. Third, in one study [12], the OPCAB patients had more severe comorbidity for cerebro-vascular disease, and in another study [43], more patients requiring reoperation were included. Excluding a previous report from us [38], the vast majority of the studies included in the meta-analysis showed that the completeness of revascularization (mean number of distal anastomoses) was significantly higher in the CPB group in comparison with the OPCAB group. Details of mortality, incidence of stroke, and completeness of revascularisation are presented in Table 5 .
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2 of heterogeneity of 4.4 with p value of 0.8 (Fig 1), which confirmed a significant reduction of stroke in the OPCAB group. The incidence of stroke in the OPCAB group was 13 of 1,253 (1%) versus 103 of 3,222 (3%) in the CPB group.
Using a fixed-effect model, the odds ratio was calculated to be 0.35 (95% CI of 0.20 to 0.59) and the
2 of heterogeneity of 4.4, with a p value of 0.8.
Sensitivity analysis results
We did not identify any significant differences in the odds ratios and heterogeneity for the outcome of interest using both random or fixed effect models.
The plot in Figure 2 . resembles a symmetrical inverted funnel (the 95% CI), inside which are all studies included in our meta-analysis. This is a scatter plot of the treatment effects estimated from individual studies on the horizontal axis (odds ratio), against a measure of study size on the vertical axis (SE[logOR]). The name "funnel plot" is based on the fact that the precision in the estimation of the underlying treatment effect will increase as the sample size of the component studies increases.
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Meta-regression analysis including variables predicting stroke, mortality, and study characteristics did not show any associations affecting the calculated odds ratio of stroke. Results are presented in Tables 68.
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| Comment |
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The current evidence suggests that avoiding the use of CPB might reduce the risk of major neurologic complications, a finding that would be of some impact on the consideration of elderly patients for CABG without adding an economic burden on the health care providers. Although every effort was made to ensure the results of this study precise, as the findings were not different between studies (we did not identify significant heterogeneity), still, it was impossible to adjust for poor study design or to quantify potential bias.
For the stroke data analyzed (Fig 2), the maximum value of the odds ratio favoring the treatment group was 0.65 (within 95% CI), translating into a relative risk reduction (RRD) of at least 35%. The average incidence of stroke in the elderly CPB patients was 3%, and therefore, a 35% reduction would mean an incidence of stroke of approximately 2% with OPCAB. Thus, the calculated absolute risk reduction (ARR) would be 1% with OPCAB, meaning that the number needed to treat (NNT = 1/ARR) would be 100. This number would be less in patients at high risk for stroke (calcified aorta, hypertensive, with previous stroke, pulmonary disease, peripheral vascular disease).
Arteriosclerosis of the ascending aorta is a part of the ageing process, which is the most important risk factor for stroke during or after CABG.
Therefore, the potential advantages of OPCAB are likely to be more evident in high-risk patients and, as such, the elderly population. This is an ideal subgroup to identify differences in the rates of rare events as stroke. The underlying mechanisms highlighting the better outcome of OPCAB with regards to stroke in elderly patients are likely to include the following. (1) OPCAB involves less manipulation of the ascending aorta by avoiding cross-clamping and aortic cannulation. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with "no-touch" techniques of the ascending aorta (avoiding proximal anastomoses) by the use of in situ arterial bypass grafts and T or Y grafts [4659]. However, this risk may not be completely eliminated with use of the OPCAB technique exclusively without true no-touch grafting technique [50]. (2) Neuro-cognitive impairment remains high after the use of CPB, which might be associated with cerebral embolism causing diffuse micro-ischemia [24]. In addition, CPB was shown to have systemic inflammatory effects resulting from the activation of complement, neutrophils, the induction of adhesion molecules, release of cytokines, and endothelial activation. These systemic inflammatory effects add to the surgical stress in elderly patients and thus contribute to long-lasting renal, pulmonary, neurologic, and cardiac impairment [5153].
Off-pump coronary artery bypass requires different equipment and procedures to CPB (retractors, stabilizers, apical suction, intraluminal shunts, active rewarming), and the effect of these on clinical outcome has not been covered by our study. Also, new devices are becoming available at regular intervals that may eliminate the need to manipulate the aorta during OPCAB, but their effectiveness has not been evaluated.
The early experience of OPCAB was limited [54, 55], and even today, in the minds of many surgeons, the applicability of OPCAB is restricted in cases with small or diffuse disease, intramyocardial coronary arteries, grafting of obtuse marginal branches, hemodyamic instability, and morbid obesity. However, for the enthusiasts, these are no longer seen as relative contraindication, and use of OPCAB in these settings has not been associated with an increased surgical mortality or morbidity.
Another important observation in our study relates to the number of grafts performed in the OPCAB group. There were significantly fewer grafts performed with the OPCAB group compared with the CPB group in the majority of the studies. Whereas the increased number of grafts in the CPB group signifies more advanced coronary artery disease, its impact as an independent predictor of adverse operative outcome (mortality and stroke) remains unclear, with differing views in the published case series [5862]. It is not yet certain whether the high-risk groups of patients, like the elderly, would benefit more from a maximum multivessel revascularization rather than a target-vessel strategy and limited revascularization. The fine balance between the risk of serious postoperative morbidity due to under-grafting or over-grafting and achievement of target vessel complete revascularization in OPCAB surgery needs to be borne in mind for the individual patient and can further reduce the impact of advanced age in minimizing adverse outcome after CABG [5660].
There is a limited number of randomized studies comparing OPCAB with CPB, and even in those, the age of the studied population was less than 70 years [61, 62]. Although meta-analysis of randomized studies is usually preferred to meta-analysis of observational studies, this is not always feasible, and until present, only data from observational studies are available; therefore, we believe that a synthesis of these data is better than none [6367].
Limitations of the study
The application of a meta-analytic approach to calculate a single estimate of intervention effect can be misleading because of a number of reasons. First, the design of the study may lack the experimental element of a random allocation to the OPCAB or to the CPB, and only few studies included in the meta-analysis reported the criteria considered by the individual surgeons to allocate patients to OPCAB or CPB group. Selection bias can also be related to the fact that different surgeons performed the two techniques (OPCAB or CPB) without any adjustment for surgeon related morbidity, learning curve, and different revascularization strategies (more extended use of bilateral internal thoracic arteries). Second, the two groups were not comparable for all the factors that can alter the outcome of interest and confounding factors cannot be excluded. Finally, it is very important to keep publication bias in mind when meta-analysis relies on previously published studies, because positive results are more likely to be published than negative results (type I error).
It is clear that a future design of a large multicenter randomized trial is needed to remove some of the variations we have faced and highlighted in our study. These include inadequate documentation of definitions, varying inclusion and matching criteria, variations in treatment protocol, and the extent to which cointerventions may have been used.
Implications of reduction in the incidence of stroke in elderly patients
Previous studies in all patients undergoing CABG have shown that reduction in stroke can reduce postoperative morbidity, mortality, length of stay, readmission rate, and postdischarge care [68, 69]. This in turn results not only in a lower cost of care for these patients but also improved patient satisfaction and improved quality of life due to an uncomplicated recovery. A study on elderly patients concluded that OPCAB is safe and effective with significantly reduction in morbidity and cost in the geriatric population [70].
Conclusions
Our study suggests that OPCAB, a less invasive procedure, might reduce neurolological morbidity in the elderly population requiring surgical myocardial revascularisation. Further prospective randomized studies are required to confirm the findings of this meta-analysis.
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