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The Annals of Thoracic Surgery, Vol 58, 815-820, Copyright © 1994 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
TE Williams Jr, WJ Fanning, L Link, WC Benton, GS Kakos, RL Miller, TD Hankins and DP Blom
Parsonnet risk estimates and postoperative lengths of stay were studied for
two cohorts of cardiac surgical patients. The first cohort consisted of 287
patients and was taken from 1984, the first full year of this cardiac
surgical program. The second cohort consisted of all 1,167 patients
operated on in the calendar years 1989 to 1991. We found that the mean risk
for the patients had nearly doubled in this interval and that the risk
distribution changed significantly from one skewed toward good-risk
patients to a nearly uniform distribution through all risk categories. A
high correlation was identified (0.9761) between the postoperative length
of stay and the mean risk estimates for the 1989 to 1991 cohort of
patients. This permits a regression equation to be calculated showing that
the length of stay could be estimated at 7.06 days + 0.21 times the mean
risk for a patient or cohort of patients. This relationship is then used to
develop a relationship between the net income for a given case or cohort of
patients and the length of stay or risk. These data suggest that, in most
hospitals, hospital fixed costs are a major determinant, even more so than
daily charges, of the relationship between the hospital's finances and the
mean risks of patients undertaken in the cardiac surgical program. The
consequences of this are discussed.
ARTICLES
Can we afford to do cardiac operations in 1996? A risk-reward curve for cardiac surgery
Division of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Ohio State University, Columbus.
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